EP 234 | The Information Edge: Winning in Prediction Markets w/ Domer
While many are only hearing about prediction markets for the first time, for near a decade, anonymous trader Domer (Twitter: @Domahhhh) has been at the frontier of profiting from outcomes of unknown future events.
Political and economic matters are Domer’s specialty, although he doesn’t shy away from the rather abstract events either—for example; trading on the outcome of Britney Spear’s conservatorship and the Suez Canal obstruction!
Now at a point where he’s netting PnL of several hundred thousand dollars a year (across multiple exchanges), much of Domer’s winnings are due to his ability to garner an information edge and rejection of the Efficient Market Hypothesis.
00:00 – Intro
02:46 – Playing Poker
06:58 – Trading Stocks
10:35 – Mechanics
15:10 – Pricing
17:36 – Timing
21:44 – Exchanges
23:20 – Market Growth
28:33 – Research Process, Acquiring Information
38:58 – Market Price vs. True Price
43:12 – Bet Sizing
44:20 – Trade Structure
48:06 – Strangest Event
50:00 – Common Mistakes
51:29 – Outro
Show notes:
https://chatwithtraders.com/234
#Trading #PredictionMarkets #Podcast
